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How much BTC futures have to do with price decline from ATH to todays level?

Here are some figures of CME Bitcoin Futures.

This means that the 5,053 contracts traded in Q3 were composed by 25,265 BTC, which are worth approximately $162 million in today’s rate.

25,265BTC is not much of 17.4M BTC. Of cource there are some other BTC futures also.

But what do you think, how much the futures effect on BTC price?

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level 1

A fairly large part. Because it’s been shown using hodl waves that less and less BTC is circulated over time in a bear market, as of 31/10, only 17% of BTC had moved in the last 3 months (vs. 40% at height of bull) so the futures, shorters and sellers are working with a pool of <$10 Billon BTC. Given there is probably $2.5 Billion in stablecoins they are going to be caught with their pants down when sentiment changes and everyone is chasing those few circulating BTC

level 2

It's got nothing to do with stable coins. It's only the futures and non stop issuance of unlimited paper btc contracts. Think of it as paper money today and it's countless printing. The more money is printed the more inflation will happen and devaluation. The same applies to btc. Same happened with gold. They don't want btc to be dominant over USD. Simple

level 3
Original Poster1 point · 5 months ago

Could you specify what are paper btc contracts.

level 4

Cash settled contracts by CME cboe unlike baakt that would hold a physical btc for trading a derivative of btc.

level 5
Original Poster2 points · 5 months ago

So does that contract owner hold the real BTC private keys which contain some real BTC?

level 6

No its just a cash contract without any btc held. Why do u think its falling.

level 7
Original Poster2 points · 5 months ago

So these contract all ready exist? And they are different that the BTC futures? And people are happy to hold these BTC contracts becouse they think they own real BTC?

So I guess the only way to destroy the power of these contracts is real use of BTC in real shopping, since the blockchain accepts only real BTC.

level 1

All of it is paper btc. Bitfinex, bitmex, cboe and cme

level 2
Original Poster1 point · 5 months ago

Yea I know. But if they they suck money out of real BTC. Like if people invest paper gold instead of real Gold.

level 3

Price remains subdued for longer time. See gold. A commodity scarce in totality and where its at since futures started. That's why I call for a protest against all of these exchanges destroying a niche asset class for their fear and instability.

level 1
level 2

Yes there will be some fractional reserve but no where near 100x. Unlike gold Bitcoin is too easy to check supply, move and store oneself, and this will get even better in future. Thus any trustees reserve would need to be much greater. So I still believe that the positive effect on Bitcoins valuation will far outweigh the negative effect of the illusion of their being more BTC in circulation.

My belief is that when these BTC trusts get established 5 years plus Bitcoin will go much like gold has and increase greatly in value to rival golds market cap then level off and become much more stable.

level 1
1 point · 5 months ago · edited 5 months ago

Big picture, some of these groups and "Exchanges" are like betting pools where they match up people betting one way versus people betting the other way. Then add in margin, and start whipsawing the volatility. Then let algos trade, and the bucket shops take a small percentage per trade (maybe not from the market maker, the passive side of the trade, but from the active trader).

Okay, so all of these are like little side bets on the speculative value of actual bitcoin.

Also out there are actual exchanges where you can buy and sell real bitcoin (and get them off the exchange afterwards). Those are where the prices are a bit more real, and what these derivative bucket shops are pointing at to get prices, ultimately.

I can understand why a miner would want to hedge using the CME and get cash-settled.

But I can see that for the price to really go up for bitcoin, it has to actually be scarce on the real exchanges where you can go and buy the real thing (and then go hodl it or use it).

So if you want to hold bitcoin and see the price go up, (rising prices indirectly lead to a rise in value too), then buy your bitcoin and Get It Off The Exchanges.

EDIT: Also, it's possible that the groups trading and using dollars as the unit of account (how they keep score), are keeping score in the wrong thing. If you stack bitcoin, real bitcoin, and an actual meltdown happens (hyperinflation of dollars, or hyperbitcoinization), then if you stacked dollars, you have lost. Use bitcoin as your hedge.

level 1

BTC futures “settle in cash” that means say you had buy a 1 BTC futures contract at $6,000 and price goes to $7,000 the contract settles in $1,000 US dollars so the person would deliver cash to close contact. Not deliver 1 BTC for $6,000

Some commodity futures still settle with the physical asset like gold bullion or oil, but most investors just close out contacts for cash and would just buy the asset on open market if they needed the physical commodity than to try and take delivery of a armored car of GLD of a tanker of oil.

level 1

Holy hell you people are confused. Ever seen a short squeeze in a commodities futures market? Buckle up.

Or.... jump out lol

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