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Posted by29 DRAISAITL1 year ago
Archived

A Look at the Oilers Salary Cap Situation in 1 year: Determining each players' cost.

So, as you probably know; McDavid's contract starts in 1 year. The Oilers will be entering "cap hell". I was in a discussion on this sub where people were claiming that most of our players won't need raises, that made me curious, so I set out to see how much of cap hell we are going to be in.

So how did I do this?

  • I used CapFriendly's Oilers outlook to see our current/future contracts and cap space. Also to see who we need to sign.

  • I then used CapFriendly's "Comparable Contract" finder as well as Hockey-Reference's Player Season Finder to find comparable players and contracts.

  • I used this information to make a low/mid/high estimate of what we will need to pay our players for 2018/2019

So what's the situation?

  • The Oilers have 10 players contracts expiring after this season. We will likely be wanting to sign 9-10 of these players to bring roster size up to 22-23

  • Thre's 3 UFA's: Maroon, Letestu and Jokinen

  • And 7 RFA's: Strome, Slepyshev, Caggiula, Pakarinen, Benning, Nurse, Brossoit.

  • CapFriendly estimates we will have $14.2M of cap space. It will probably be slightly more with the cap going up 1-2M. There could also be overages and what not.

So here is the result of my analysis:

  • Each player has their status, age in 1 year, current cap, and then a low/mid/high salary estimate.

  • The comparable players are listed with the year they signed the "comparable contract" after a "comparable season". I also listed their point totals and GP from that contract year

PlayerStatus in 1 YearAge in 1yrCurrent CapLow Comparable 'Year P/GPLow CapMid Comparable 'Year P/GPMid CapHigh Comparable 'Year P/GPHigh CapNotes
Ryan StromeRFA25$2,500,000Dorsett 2015: 25p / 79GP$2,650,000A.Killorn '16: 40p /81gp Boedker'16: 12p /18gp A.Shaw '16: 26p /79gp$4,100,000Zibanejad '17: 37p/56gp Schenn '16: 59p /80gp$5,300,000Very few people that were 2 yr bridged in last several years experienced a drop in salary. Killorn, Boedker, Zibanejad and Schenn were all bridged on 2 year deals and then had varying results. Don't see us getting Strome for less than 3.5M unless he has poor year
Mark LetestuUFA33$1,800,000-$1,000,000-$1,500,000-$2,200,000Too lazy to find comparables, his salary will be somewhere in the 1-2 range
Patrick MaroonUFA30$2,000,000B. Boyes '15: 38p /78 GP$700,000 R. Bourque '10:58p/73gp T. Brouwer '13: 33p/47gp $3,400,000C. Soderberg '15: 44p/82gp$4,750,000The comparable players all had similar point totals at similar age to Maroon and then signed a UFA deal. Maroon has been worse throughout his career, I expect somewhere around 3-4M
Jussi JokinenUFA35$1,100,000$725,000-$1,000,000-$1,500,000We probably won't re-sign him, if we do it will be similar deal to current
Anton SlepyshevRFA24$925,000N.Deslaurier '16: 12p/70gp M. Beleskey '11: 10p/35gp$750,000A. Roussel '14: 29p/80gp, C. Mcleod '09: 20p/79gp$1,200,000C. Kreider '14: 37p/66gp Silfverberg '15: 39p/81gp$3,250,000It's really hard to say for Slep. Depends largely on this year. Could bridge him depending how he does. I think it's reasonable to assume he'll get about 1.25 ish, but who knows
Drake CaggiulaRFA24$925,000K. Porter '11: 25p/74gp$850,000N. Foligno '10: 26p/61gp$1,200,000C. Atkinson '15: 40p/78gp K. Hayes '16: 36pts/79GP$3,250,000Also tough to say with Drake. Depends largely on this season. I tried using USA Comparables. Depending how he does he'll probably get 1.5M to 2M.
Iiro PakarinenRFA26$725,000Pakarinen '16: 13p/63gp$700,000T. Pulkinnen '16: 12p/36gp$815,000R.Jones '11: 25pts/81gp$1,500,0004th Liner, barring a huge breakout season, he will get about 1M, maybe less.
Matt BenningRFA24$1,075,000TVR '16: 14p/82gp$825,000Dekeyser '14: 23p/65gp J.McBain '12: 27pts/76gp$2,100,000C. Parayko '17: 35p/81gp$5,500,000I have a huge range for Benning. It's impossible to know what he will get. He was solid last year. We might bridge him for 2 ish, could go long term for 3.5+, It's tought to say
Darnell NurseRFA23$1,713,000J. McCabe '16: 14p/77gp, L.Sbisa '11: 11p/68gp$2,000,000J. Trouba '16:21p/81gp, L.Schenn '11: 22p/82g, S.Despres '16: 4p/32gp$3,200,000Ristolainen '16: 41p/82gp Myers '12: 23p/55gp$5,400,000Nurse would have to have a hell of a year to warrant 5M+, I doubt that. He will probably get around 3M, hopefully less.
Laurent BroissotRFA25$750,000JF Berube '17$700,000L. Domingue$1,000,000M. Jones '15$3,000,000He will probably get around 1M depending how many games he plays and such
TotalsNow$13,513,000Total Low$10,900,000total Mid$19,515,000Total High$35,650,000So, Bottom line, we will probably have to spend about 20M to keep all 10 players. If we let Letestu/Jokinen leave, and sign cheaper UFA's then we might be able to keep RNH

Conclusion

  • The Oilers are going to be in real trouble. If we want to sign 9-10 of these players, it will likely cost us about $20 Million, possibly more. We will have to do this with $14-16 Million in cap space, depending on overages and salary cap rising.

So we will only be 4-6 Million over? That's not bad

  • Your right, that's not that bad, it's doable. We just have to free up a few of our current contracts to make it work. And that's where the problem comes in.

"These contract estimates are crap! The comparables are ridiculous"

  • They might be way off, i'm not a capologist, just a lowly unemployed finance grad. If you have suggestions, i'm open to discussion.

  • I think most of the comparables are pretty solid, I looked at age, point totals, draft location etc.I t is definitely a bit of a wake up call when you look at contracts around the league, players coming off ELC, even mediocre ones demand lots of money.

So can't we trade one of our older expensive players?

  • Unfortunately not. Moving Russell or Lucic or Sekera would likely solve our cap problem. However, all 3 of these players are on No Move Clauses. We could try get one of them to waive, but it's unlikely. The Lucic/Russell deals might really hurt us.

So then what are the options?

  • Well, I see 2 options.

  1. Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for picks/prospects. This option is very likely to happen. It makes me sad as Nuge is very good and he also is the only player to have played with old era Oilers such as Smytty, Hemsky and Horcoff. He experienced the dark ages and deserves a cup here.

  2. Trading or Not signing some of the RFA's. Depending on their demands, we could trade someone like Strome/Nurse/Benning/Maroon or a combination of those players. If we only sign 5 or 6 of those RFA/UFA's and then fill up on cheap prospects, we could be ok. I doubt Chia does this.

Perhaps Chia will figure out another way of doing it!

  • Hopefully, or the cap goes up 4+ Million.

TL/DR: Oilers will probably need to move about $6M out in order to sign players next summer. Bye Bye Nuge :(

74 comments
94% Upvoted
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level 1
3 HAMILTON46 points · 1 year ago

Whelp this year is Win One for the Nuge Year, I here by proclaim it such.

level 2
93 NUGENT-HOPKINS3 points · 1 year ago

I second this motion wholeheartedly. And then, if [when ;)] we succeed, I hereby proclaim that we will find a way to keep the Nuge and win him some more cups!

... I'm not in denial, you're in denial!

level 1
10 YAKUPOV23 points · 1 year ago

This is a good post and you should feel good.

level 1
93 NUGENT-HOPKINS28 points · 1 year ago

This is what happens when Chia gets too generous with some of the signings thus far. Russell should have had 1.5 mill or so knocked off his yearly, Lucic should have been signed for a mill less, and Draisaitl could have been one mill/.5 mill less. It seems like we're nickeling and diming here, but every bit counts if we want to keep a quality player like Nuge in the mix.

Whatever they're doing, our management doesn't seem to have much negotiating power. Comparatively, look at the signings of Versteeg, or Gagner which look like incredible value signings with low risk. These players would rather make less and stick with their current organizations than to move elsewhere for more money. What is it about our organization that makes us look so damn soft?

I don't know why we would risk being locked in with generous contracts with declining talent and with NMC to boot. Russell blocked a ton of shots last year and looked competent enough, but there is no guarantee he could continue on this way for the next full years. He is not a worthwhile investment, and it's a shame Sekera is injured because he plays a much better, more thought-out game. Lucic was underwhelming last year - clunky skating, and too late to take advantage of a number of scoring opportunities. He wasn't exactly the enforcer either, as Maroon and Kassian stepped up instead.

To lose Nuge like this because of other bloated contracts would be terrible.

level 2
8 points · 1 year ago

Amen. Yes $500k isn't much on a single overpay. But add them all up and it costs you Nuge. Not a fan of many of Chias signings so far personally. If he is a great GM he should be negotiating these contracts down, not paying a premium. Anyone can pay a premium.

level 2
[deleted]
2 points · 1 year ago

Some people just get locked in to narratives, it's crazy.

Terrible? Nuge didn't earn $6m last year. If he earns his wage this year, they'll keep him. If he doesn't they won't.

level 2
14 EBERLE2 points · 1 year ago

I think one thing that hasn't been mentioned in awhile is that Edm is still not an attractive place to live relative to other cities. Mcdavid has definitely raised our profile but to what degree is hard to say. Each individual player is different; some dont care, some like it but given the choice many would prefer playing elsewhere. It sucks but maybe that factored into negotiations.

Also not to nitpick but Versteeg took less to get that icetime and hopefully get one last decent UFA contract. At the risk of speculating on his motivations he's won his cup and it seems reasonable to assume he needed to showcase himself and maybe he just wanted more playing time. Same thing but to lesser degree with Gagner, he goes to a team where he could get a lot of ice time.

level 1
29 DRAISAITLOriginal Poster9 points · 1 year ago · edited 1 year ago

Interestingly, Jonathan Willis came out with a more optimistic look today

edit: Regarding Willis' take, most of our numbers are similar, the biggest differences coming from Nurse and Strome. There's no way we get Nurse for 1.5M. Based on comparable and worse players, that would be a steal. Strome at 3 is also unlikely, even if he has an average season he will be demanding more than that.

level 2
[deleted]
5 points · 1 year ago

Did you watch Nurse last season? He ranked last among regular defencemen in both shots against and goals against per 60 minutes at even strength, and doubled down by being last in the group in those same two significant categories on the penalty kill.

He also played against pretty easy competition. He has to have a big year to get 3M.

level 1
93 NUGENT-HOPKINS9 points · 1 year ago
level 2
Moderator of r/EdmontonOilers, speaking officially3 points · 1 year ago

DRAISAITL

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level 2

Bust out the Goodfellas garlic gif

level 1
30 RANFORD9 points · 1 year ago · edited 1 year ago

You forgot about Mark Fayne.

In all seriousness, we're fucked unless we spend the cap till the brim and don't re-sign 14 players on the farm team. And even then we still lose 1-2 players.

level 2
5 points · 1 year ago

Fayne comes off the books after this season

level 2
[deleted]
1 point · 1 year ago

Hey guys, don't bother watching next season because the Oilers are "fucked".

level 1
97 MCDAVID8 points · 1 year ago · edited 1 year ago

I believe letestu, pakarinen, and jokinen will not be re-signed bringing the total number of players to a completely manageable amount. The oilers management has been generous with some contracts, but not enough to cripple us

Also I think Benning, Nurse should be kept at all costs

level 2
29 DRAISAITL9 points · 1 year ago

We won't let Letestu walk. He'll be cheap for what he brings.

level 1
19 O'SULLIVAN6 points · 1 year ago

Other likely scenario is what happened for Chicago and their cap situation. They would give up their best prospect and/or pick to dump contracts. May be likely to see Bear, Jones, Nurse, Kailer, Benson, or others moved with Russell to dump that contract.

Note for op: Capfriendly seems to be wrong about Russell's contract unless someone can source it. Only a NTC on the latter 2 years of his contract. AFAIK only Capfriendly is stating that contract like that. None of the insiders or the hockey club have stated any NMC.

level 2
29 DRAISAITLOriginal Poster6 points · 1 year ago

Note for op: Capfriendly seems to be wrong about Russell's contract unless someone can source it. Only a NTC on the latter 2 years of his contract. AFAIK only Capfriendly is stating that contract like that. None of the insiders or the hockey club have stated any NMC.

Holy shit. Are you serious?? So we can dump the contract after this season!! Ok I'm actually relieved. Although I'd like confirmation on that

level 2
2 points · 1 year ago · edited 1 year ago

unless someone can source it.

As you can see on Russell's page: https://www.capfriendly.com/players/kris-russell

We have sourced it to ourselves, meaning we have independently verified the clause structure. We just double checked and can assure you that what we display is accurate.

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