So, as you probably know; McDavid's contract starts in 1 year. The Oilers will be entering "cap hell". I was in a discussion on this sub where people were claiming that most of our players won't need raises, that made me curious, so I set out to see how much of cap hell we are going to be in.
So how did I do this?
I used CapFriendly's Oilers outlook to see our current/future contracts and cap space. Also to see who we need to sign.
I then used CapFriendly's "Comparable Contract" finder as well as Hockey-Reference's Player Season Finder to find comparable players and contracts.
I used this information to make a low/mid/high estimate of what we will need to pay our players for 2018/2019
So what's the situation?
The Oilers have 10 players contracts expiring after this season. We will likely be wanting to sign 9-10 of these players to bring roster size up to 22-23
Thre's 3 UFA's: Maroon, Letestu and Jokinen
And 7 RFA's: Strome, Slepyshev, Caggiula, Pakarinen, Benning, Nurse, Brossoit.
CapFriendly estimates we will have $14.2M of cap space. It will probably be slightly more with the cap going up 1-2M. There could also be overages and what not.
So here is the result of my analysis:
Each player has their status, age in 1 year, current cap, and then a low/mid/high salary estimate.
The comparable players are listed with the year they signed the "comparable contract" after a "comparable season". I also listed their point totals and GP from that contract year
|Player||Status in 1 Year||Age in 1yr||Current Cap||Low Comparable 'Year P/GP||Low Cap||Mid Comparable 'Year P/GP||Mid Cap||High Comparable 'Year P/GP||High Cap||Notes|
|Ryan Strome||RFA||25||$2,500,000||Dorsett 2015: 25p / 79GP||$2,650,000||A.Killorn '16: 40p /81gp Boedker'16: 12p /18gp A.Shaw '16: 26p /79gp||$4,100,000||Zibanejad '17: 37p/56gp Schenn '16: 59p /80gp||$5,300,000||Very few people that were 2 yr bridged in last several years experienced a drop in salary. Killorn, Boedker, Zibanejad and Schenn were all bridged on 2 year deals and then had varying results. Don't see us getting Strome for less than 3.5M unless he has poor year|
|Mark Letestu||UFA||33||$1,800,000||-||$1,000,000||-||$1,500,000||-||$2,200,000||Too lazy to find comparables, his salary will be somewhere in the 1-2 range|
|Patrick Maroon||UFA||30||$2,000,000||B. Boyes '15: 38p /78 GP||$700,000||R. Bourque '10:58p/73gp T. Brouwer '13: 33p/47gp||$3,400,000||C. Soderberg '15: 44p/82gp||$4,750,000||The comparable players all had similar point totals at similar age to Maroon and then signed a UFA deal. Maroon has been worse throughout his career, I expect somewhere around 3-4M|
|Jussi Jokinen||UFA||35||$1,100,000||$725,000||-||$1,000,000||-||$1,500,000||We probably won't re-sign him, if we do it will be similar deal to current|
|Anton Slepyshev||RFA||24||$925,000||N.Deslaurier '16: 12p/70gp M. Beleskey '11: 10p/35gp||$750,000||A. Roussel '14: 29p/80gp, C. Mcleod '09: 20p/79gp||$1,200,000||C. Kreider '14: 37p/66gp Silfverberg '15: 39p/81gp||$3,250,000||It's really hard to say for Slep. Depends largely on this year. Could bridge him depending how he does. I think it's reasonable to assume he'll get about 1.25 ish, but who knows|
|Drake Caggiula||RFA||24||$925,000||K. Porter '11: 25p/74gp||$850,000||N. Foligno '10: 26p/61gp||$1,200,000||C. Atkinson '15: 40p/78gp K. Hayes '16: 36pts/79GP||$3,250,000||Also tough to say with Drake. Depends largely on this season. I tried using USA Comparables. Depending how he does he'll probably get 1.5M to 2M.|
|Iiro Pakarinen||RFA||26||$725,000||Pakarinen '16: 13p/63gp||$700,000||T. Pulkinnen '16: 12p/36gp||$815,000||R.Jones '11: 25pts/81gp||$1,500,000||4th Liner, barring a huge breakout season, he will get about 1M, maybe less.|
|Matt Benning||RFA||24||$1,075,000||TVR '16: 14p/82gp||$825,000||Dekeyser '14: 23p/65gp J.McBain '12: 27pts/76gp||$2,100,000||C. Parayko '17: 35p/81gp||$5,500,000||I have a huge range for Benning. It's impossible to know what he will get. He was solid last year. We might bridge him for 2 ish, could go long term for 3.5+, It's tought to say|
|Darnell Nurse||RFA||23||$1,713,000||J. McCabe '16: 14p/77gp, L.Sbisa '11: 11p/68gp||$2,000,000||J. Trouba '16:21p/81gp, L.Schenn '11: 22p/82g, S.Despres '16: 4p/32gp||$3,200,000||Ristolainen '16: 41p/82gp Myers '12: 23p/55gp||$5,400,000||Nurse would have to have a hell of a year to warrant 5M+, I doubt that. He will probably get around 3M, hopefully less.|
|Laurent Broissot||RFA||25||$750,000||JF Berube '17||$700,000||L. Domingue||$1,000,000||M. Jones '15||$3,000,000||He will probably get around 1M depending how many games he plays and such|
|Totals||Now||$13,513,000||Total Low||$10,900,000||total Mid||$19,515,000||Total High||$35,650,000||So, Bottom line, we will probably have to spend about 20M to keep all 10 players. If we let Letestu/Jokinen leave, and sign cheaper UFA's then we might be able to keep RNH|
The Oilers are going to be in real trouble. If we want to sign 9-10 of these players, it will likely cost us about $20 Million, possibly more. We will have to do this with $14-16 Million in cap space, depending on overages and salary cap rising.
So we will only be 4-6 Million over? That's not bad
Your right, that's not that bad, it's doable. We just have to free up a few of our current contracts to make it work. And that's where the problem comes in.
"These contract estimates are crap! The comparables are ridiculous"
They might be way off, i'm not a capologist, just a lowly unemployed finance grad. If you have suggestions, i'm open to discussion.
I think most of the comparables are pretty solid, I looked at age, point totals, draft location etc.I t is definitely a bit of a wake up call when you look at contracts around the league, players coming off ELC, even mediocre ones demand lots of money.
So can't we trade one of our older expensive players?
Unfortunately not. Moving Russell or Lucic or Sekera would likely solve our cap problem. However, all 3 of these players are on No Move Clauses. We could try get one of them to waive, but it's unlikely. The Lucic/Russell deals might really hurt us.
So then what are the options?
Well, I see 2 options.
Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for picks/prospects. This option is very likely to happen. It makes me sad as Nuge is very good and he also is the only player to have played with old era Oilers such as Smytty, Hemsky and Horcoff. He experienced the dark ages and deserves a cup here.
Trading or Not signing some of the RFA's. Depending on their demands, we could trade someone like Strome/Nurse/Benning/Maroon or a combination of those players. If we only sign 5 or 6 of those RFA/UFA's and then fill up on cheap prospects, we could be ok. I doubt Chia does this.
Perhaps Chia will figure out another way of doing it!
Hopefully, or the cap goes up 4+ Million.
TL/DR: Oilers will probably need to move about $6M out in order to sign players next summer. Bye Bye Nuge :(